After the testimony by key generals to congress yesterday there is more talk than ever about civil war in Iraq. Certainly something seems to be happening, but Strategy Page I think is correct that it is not a civil war because that would imply the Sunnis are able to fight back effectively, but rather is likely the opening stages of a what I would call a purge:

Now you understand. In 2003, the apparatus of Sunni domination, was taken apart. Sunni Arabs no longer held nearly all the senior military, police and government jobs. The Sunni Arab secret police force(s) were disbanded, as was the army. For the first time in over three centuries, the Sunni Arabs of Baghdad were not in charge, and they did not like it. They have been resisting this change in status ever since. But in the last three years, things have only gotten worse for the Sunni Arabs. The new government (dominated by Kurds and Shia Arabs, who are 80 percent of the population) has created an army and police force. So not only are the Sunni Arabs outnumbered, but they are confronted with an army and police force controlled by their enemies.

And it gets worse, because the Sunni Arab dictatorship got worse as time went on. The last 10-15 years of Saddam's rule were particularly horrible for the Kurds and Shia Arabs. There were massacres and constant terror from Saddam's secret police. So not only are the Sunni Arabs now outnumbered, and facing over a quarter million soldiers and police they do not control, they are also on the receiving end of revenge attacks by millions of enraged Kurds and Shia Arabs.

This is not the recipe for civil war, it's the prelude to massacre and mass expulsion. Of the Sunni Arabs. In Iraq, everyone is aware of this, but too many foreigners, including many who should know better, just don't get it.

Genocide you think? No, not hardly. For that the Sunnis would have to be stupid enough to stick around to be killed. 25% of them have already skipped out of Iraq because of the growing violence and it is likely the vast majority would follow if things move in that direction.

On the other hand the gathering violence could just be the final spasms of payback before civil law gathers enough force to effectively prevent it. The increasing violence and murder could be a sign that those holding grudges are acting on them while they can because they see the changes coming, the growing power of the law. After the Sunnis ruthlessly murdered, raped, and tortured their way through many decades of ruthless oppression is it hard to imagine that there was going to be a price paid by the Sunnis for their loss of power? A price exacted in the currency it was earned, in blood.

And we have been expecting something like that since the beginning. Most just thought it was going to be a few years ago. But the Sunnis have been so busy scaring everyone with suicide bombings and general mayhem that they seem to have averted that result for a time. The Sunni attempt to terrorize their way back into power failed though. Worse, it likely enraged the Shias and Kurds even more than they were before. Now the formerly oppressed have the tools to take revenge, and ironically they have those tools precisely because of the Sunni wave of terrorism.

Maybe there is Karma.