Its all going according to The Plan, Ariel Sharon's Plan.  Or at least, that's what I think so far.  If you pay attention to the news at all you know that Israel is at war right now in Gaza and Lebanon.  You've no need to look here for coverage of who is planning what or even less who is doing what, because I really have no specific knowledge other than reading the same news reports everyone else is.  What you are reading here is speculation about what might be and why.  

So here I go speculating away about how it got to this point for Israel.  I've no sources per se, and certainly no insider information.  This is an analysis of what was publicly done and said in the past, and perhaps how that lead to now.  Disclaimers made, lets head back to The Plan.

Its all Ariel Sharon's plan.  Or at the least, the conditions that invited various other parties to attack Israel and begin the current war were intentionally put into place by Sharon.  The Plan has worked, so far.

"Plan?  What plan," readers are probably thinking.

Fair question.  If you go back to read articles and interviews from the last few years as Sharon lead Israel to the new policy of unilateral disengagement there were endless questions and doubts.  Heck there were elections in that time and Sharon got asked over and over "what's the plan" and "but why are we doing this, they will just take this land and attack us".

What did Sharon reply?  I'll quote him here approximately from memory "Trust me, it is all according to The Plan, it will all work out."   That's it, that's the public explanation of The Plan.  He never told anyone, at least not that anyone has admitted publicly, what The Plan was.  He never told anyone how it was going to work out, or where it was all going to lead and end.  Sharon just said "Trust me because I have a Plan".

Voters in Israel did, even to the point of shattering the existing political party structure to recreate politics in the nation at his request so he could continue with The Plan.  Then he had his stroke, and who knows if anyone really knows what The Plan was.  There was a lot of reporting on this issue and what it meant about Sharon's Plan when it became clear he would never recover.  We, the public, will likely not know for decades what the truth of it is, if ever.

We can speculate though, and that's what this is here that you are reading right now.  Because I think this current war is the result of the long term plan of Ariel Sharon.  I think this, or something like this, was his intention.  He couldn't admit it.  He could never admit he was leading the nation and the region very deliberately into another war.  They would have voted him out and he would have been excoriated for a final time as a warmonger.  Which is why I tend to think he didn't tell a soul what The Plan really was and where he was leading them.

What was The Plan?  I think The Plan was to goad the enemies of Israel into open attack by withdrawing from the protective zones Israel had occupied for so long to stop attacks, so that Israel's enemies had the space to freely organize and execute their attacks. I think that crafty old general Sharon knew that his blood enemies just wouldn't be able to stop themselves from attacking what they would clearly interpret as a worn down and much weakened Israel.

You have to remember that Israel was being nibbled to death by impossible to completely stop terrorist attacks, attacks and murders without end that could very well continue forever… or at least until they finally managed to acquire a few nuclear weapons and destroyed Israel.  Israel was much too good at suppressing any sort of serious attack so their enemies knew there wasn't even a reason to try again.  That was bad because those enemies had enough political cover and aid so that they could never be defeated or destroyed.  Israel was trapped and hemmed in with suicidal murderous enemies intent on eventually wiping them all out, but was unable to really do anything about changing the situation or resolving it in any way without giving up and committing national suicide.

How then to win, to defeat the blood enemies and secure a lasting peace?   Another war is needed, a major war where the enemies could be goaded into thinking Israel was weak and to try to attack them again.  Thus creating a Casus Belli, justification for declaring war, that Israel could finally use to attack the political protectors and suppliers of their enemies so that they could finally strike at the true enemy.  As long as the source of opposition is immune the enemy could not be defeated, only limited in the amount of killing they could do.  But if the enemy could be goaded into making another try at openly attacking Israel…. then it is possible to attack the source, defeat it, and cut the pawns off to wither into mere nuisances.  If the war got desperate enough that the Palestinians rose up again to try to help destroy Israel then they would have the pretext they would need to finally eject them entirely from the region (including the West Bank and Gaza) and send them all into permanent exile amongst the Muslim diaspora.  With the enemy defeated abroad and the enemy expelled from home a lasting peace could be won.  This is the only way Israel will ever have peace.  All other paths lead to at best perpetual terrorism and suffering and at worst total destruction.

For Israel to win they must be able to fight their true enemies.  Sharon's Plan worked.  The source enemies, Syria and Iran, are unmasked and openly supporting the attacks on Israel.  The Palestinians have been firing missiles in acts of war from the sovereign land given to them by Israel.  Suckers, all of them.  The stage is set, the Casus Belli is now clearly present, and now Israel can execute its plans for victory and a peaceful future.

My question now is did Sharon tell anyone what needed to be done when his plan created the opportunity?  It would be extremely easy to sort of muddle through this crisis and return to how things were before Sharon implemented his Plan.  Then it would all be for naught.  Even if he did tell the right people, was he correct in planning and will they follow through well enough to secure such a victory that it leads to a lasting peace?  Even if they beat Syria and Iran like a drum it won't matter all that much if they leave the Palestinians where they are.  In time they will just get other sponsors or conduct cheaper attacks.  Europe is only too happy to keep funding the Palestinian's miserable existence in their refugee camps so that they can focus on killing Jews 24/7, even if they have to slow down attacks due to lack of money.  Do the Israelis have the stones to expel the Palestinians?

I doubt it.  I don't think anyone in power right now is remotely as ruthless as Ariel Sharon was, or is anywhere near as ready to make the really hard choices that could actually end the conflict long term.  That's why they were elected, to be the middle of the road sort of "practical" reasonable people who would somehow figure out how to deal with the Palestinians so that they weren't a threat any more.  The voters had no real idea how that was supposed to happen but they weren't ready to go hard right-wing and do what I discussed above and they had too much painful experience with trying the failed left-wing approach of trust and peaceful negotiation.  So they picked the current self styled "middle of the road" crew.  Crushing Syria and then Iran, followed by ejecting the entire population of Palestinians from the region, is not remotely moderate or middle of the road.  So we are likely going to see a perhaps protracted exercise in whack-a-mole by the Israelis until the current leadership deems they have made their point.  Then more muddling through and likely a return to the way things were before Sharon.

That's my guess.  We are about to see.